Archive for September, 2015

Key Economic Indicators – September 28, 2015

Friday, September 25th, 2015
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.9% in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6% in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.7%.
  • Real gross domestic income increased 0.7% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4% in the previous quarter.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.3% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5% in the first quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the second quarter, compared to a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter.  Excluding food and energy, the price index increased 1.2%, compared with an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter.
  •  Corporate profits from current production increased $70.4 billion in the second quarter, following a decrease of $123.0 billion in the previous quarter.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 2.0% in August, while shipments held steady. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 4.6% from the same period a year ago, while shipments increased 2.3%.
  • August existing home sales were down 4.8% from the previous month, but were up 6.2% from a year ago. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $228.7 thousand, 4.7% above August 2014. There were 2.29 million houses for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 5.2 months at the current sales rate, compared to 5.6 in August of 2014.
  • August new home sales were up 5.7% from the previous month, and were up 21.6% from a year ago. The median sales price of new houses sold was $292.7 thousand, 0.3% above August 2014.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from June to July, following a 0.2% increase in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in July, U.S. prices rose 5.8%. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from 2.1% in the New England division to 9.4% in the Mountain division. The U.S. index is 1.1% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the November 2006 index level.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 24th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower following the Federal Reserve announcement that it will defer a hike in the Federal funds rate. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.86% for the week ending September 24, down from last week when it averaged 3.91%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.20%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 13.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 18th.
  • Domestic non-financial debt rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.4% and reached $43,979 billion at the end of second quarter of 2015. 
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 267 thousand in the week ending September 19th. The 4-week moving average was 271.75 thousand, a decrease of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  •  Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in August. Twenty-nine states had unemployment rate decreases from July, 10 states had increases, and 11 states and the District of Columbia had no change.
  • In August, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and decreased in 18 states and the District of Columbia.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 87.2 in September, from 91.9 in August. This was the lowest level in eleven months, but it was still higher than in any prior month since May 2007.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index fell to negative 0.41 in August, from positive 0.51 in July.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City manufacturing survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a pace as in previous months, while expectations for future activity dropped considerably.  

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Key Economic Indicators – September 21, 2015

Friday, September 18th, 2015
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for August were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 2.2% from August 2014. Year-to-date, retail and food services sales were up 2.1% from the same period of 2014.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for July were up 0.1% from the previous month, but were down 2.7% from July 2014. Total business inventories for July were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 2.6% from a year ago.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.4% in August, after increasing 0.9% in the previous month.
  • The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 78.2%, 2.5 percentage points below its 1972-2014 average, and 0.6 percentage point below its level in August 2014.
  • Housing starts in August were down 3.0% from the previous month, but were up 16.6 from a year ago. Building permits in August were up 3.5% from the previous month, and were up 12.5% from a year ago.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased a point to 62 in September. The index was 57 in January, and 59 in September of 2014.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 17th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91% for the week ending September 17th, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.23%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 7.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 11th.
  • The current account deficit decreased to $109.7 billion in the second quarter, from $118.3 billion in the previous quarter. The deficit decreased to 2.5% of GDP in the second quarter, from 2.7% of GDP in the first quarter.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.1% in August, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 0.2% for the 12-month period ending in August, while the core index increased 1.8%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 11 thousand to 264 thousand in the week ending September 12th. The 4-week moving average was 272.5 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5% from July to August. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% decrease in the consumer price index.
  • From March 2014 to March 2015, employment increased in 323 of the 342 largest U.S. counties (counties with 75 thousand or more jobs in 2014), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. average weekly wage increased 2.1% over the year, growing to $1,048 in the first quarter of 2015.
  • The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for the second consecutive month for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for September gave mixed signals for manufacturing activity. The indicator for general activity fell into negative territory, but indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive. The index of current activity decreased to negative 6.0 in September, from positive 8.3 in August.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators, which held steady in July, increased 0.1% in August. The coincident index increased 0.1%, following a 0.4% increase in July.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%, and indicated that economic conditions may warrant keeping the target rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

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Key Economic Indicators – September 14, 2015

Friday, September 11th, 2015
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in July were down 0.3% from the previous month, and were down 4.2% from a year ago. Sales of durable goods increased 1.2%, while non-durable goods sales decreased 1.7%. In July, inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 0.1% from the previous month, but were up 4.9% from July 2014.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $64.4 billion in August, following a deficit of $149.2 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first eleven months of fiscal year 2015 was $530.0 billion.
  • July consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of6.7%. Revolving credits increased 5.7%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.0%.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) held steady in August, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy moved down 0.2%. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.8% from August 2014.
  • The import price index decreased 1.8% in August, while the export price index decreased 1.4%. The import price index decreased 11.4% from August 2014, while the price index for exports decreased 7.0%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 6 thousand to 275 thousand in the week ending September 5th. The 4-week moving average was 275.75 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The number of jobs openings again rose to a series high of 5.8 million on the last business day of July. The number of hires and separations decreased down to 5.0 million and 4.7 million, respectively.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 10th showed average fixed mortgage rates relatively unchanged from the previous week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.90% for the week ending September 10th, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.89%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 6.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 4th.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for September decreased to 85.7, from 91.9 in August. The index was 84.6 in September of 2014.

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Key Economic Indicators – September 7, 2015

Friday, September 4th, 2015
  • Total non-farm payroll employment rose 173 thousand in August, following an increase of 245 thousand in the previous month.  Private-sector payrolls increased by 140 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 33 thousand. 
  • The unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in August, from 5.3% in July. The unemployment rate was 6.1% in August of 2014.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.1 to 34.6 hours.
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 8 cents to $25.09.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.2% and average weekly earnings were up 2.5%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 12 thousand to 282 thousand in the week ending August 29th. The 4-week moving average was 275.5 thousand, an increase of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 359 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 20 areas, and unchanged in 8 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Second quarter productivity increased 3.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 1.1% decrease in the previous period. Hourly compensation rose 1.8%, while unit labor costs decreased 1.4%. From the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015, productivity increased 0.7%, reflecting increases in output and hours worked of 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
  • Average expenditures per consumer unit in 2014 were $53,495, up 4.7% from 2013, and average income before taxes was $66,877, up 4.8% from 2013. Shares of average annual expenditures by a married couple with children were: food: 12.9%, housing: 31.8%, transportation: 17.3%, healthcare: 7.3%, personal insurance & pensions: 12.5%.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 3.2% in August, while total light vehicle sales increased 1.4%. Total vehicle sales were 17.7 million units in August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.2 million in August of 2014.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.4% in July, while shipments decreased 0.2%. Excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.6% in July, and shipments were down 0.7%. Year-to-date manufacturers’ new orders were down 7.3%, while shipments were down 3.8%.
  • In July, international trade deficit decreased $3.3 billion to $41.9 billion. Year-to-date, the deficit was $306.1 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $295.5 billion during the first seven months of 2014.
  • Construction spending increased 0.7% in July.  Private construction increased 1.3%, while public construction decreased 1.0%. July construction put in place was 13.7% above such construction in July 2014.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 3rd showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.89% for the week ending September 3, up from last week when it averaged 3.84%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.1%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 11.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 28th.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 32nd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 75th consecutive month.
  • In August, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 67th consecutive month.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August.

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