Key Economic Indicators – March 21, 2016

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for February were down 0.1% from January, but were up 3.1% from February 2015. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, sales were down 0.1% from the previous month, but were up 2.1% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales and food services were up 3.5% from the same period of 2015.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for January were down 0.4% from the previous month, and were down 1.1% from January 2015. Total business inventories were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 1.8% from a year ago. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.40, compared to 1.36 in January of 2015.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.5% in February, after increasing 0.8% in the previous month. Total Industrial production was down 1.0% from February 2015. The capacity utilization rate was 76.7 in February, 3.3 percentage points below the average for the 1972-2015 period.
  • Housing starts in February were 1,178 thousand, up 5.3% from the previous month and were up 30.9% from a year ago. Building permits in February were 1,167 thousand units, down 3.1% from January, but were up 6.3% from February 2015.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo was unchanged at 58 in March. The index was 52 in March of 2015, and 61 in January 2016.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.73% for the week ending March 17, up from last week when it averaged 3.68%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.78%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% for the week ending March 17, up from last week when it averaged 2.96%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 11th.
  • The current account deficit decreased to $125.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, from $129.9 billion in the previous quarter. The deficit decreased to 2.8% of GDP, from 2.9% of GDP in the previous quarter. The current account deficit in the year 2015 was $484.1 billion, up from $389.5 billion in 2014.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.2% in February, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.1%, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) was unchanged from February 2015 to February 2016, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade was up 0.9%. The index for processed goods for intermediate demand fell 0.7% in February, while the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 2.1%. The index for services for intermediate demand increased 0.3%, following a 1.1% increase in the previous month.
  • The consumer price index (headline index), which was unchanged in January, decreased 0.2% in February. The core index increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.0% for the 12-month period ending in February, while the core index rose 2.3%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees were virtually unchanged from January to February. This result stems from a 0.1% decrease in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2% decrease in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 7 thousand to 265 thousand in the week ending March 12. The 4-week moving average was 268 thousand, an increase of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 5 was 2,235 thousand, an increase of 8 thousand from the previous week’s revised level.
  • There were 5.5 million job openings on the last business day of January, an increase of 260 thousand from December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires declined to 5.0 million, while separations edged down to 4.9 million.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in January than a year earlier in 333 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 43 areas and unchanged in 11 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 325 metropolitan areas, decreased in 55 areas, and was unchanged in 7 areas.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for March decreased to 90.0, from 91.7 in February. The index was 93.0 a year ago.
  • The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity steadied for New York manufacturers. The current business conditions index climbed seventeen points to its first positive reading since July of last year.  
  • The Philadelphia FED manufacturing business outlook survey for March reported an improvement in business conditions. The indicator for general activity rose to its first positive reading in seven months.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.1% in February, following a 0.2% decrease in January. The coincident index increased 0.1% in February, following a 0.3% increase in January.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50%. The Committee “expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”

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