Archive for May, 2016
Friday, May 27th, 2016
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after increasing at 1.4% in the previous quarter. In the “advance” estimate, released a month ago, real GDP increased 0.5%.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.2% for the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9% in the previous quarter.
- The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.5% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the final quarter of 2015.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.2% in the first quarter, compared to an increase of 1.0% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4%.
- Corporate profits from current production increased $6.5 billion in the first quarter, after an increase of $159.6 billion in the previous quarter.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.4% in April, while shipments increased 0.6%.
- April new home sales increased 16.6% to an annualized rate of 619 thousand units. The median sales price of new houses sold was $321.1 thousand, 9.7% above April 2015.
- U.S. House prices rose 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February to March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in March, U.S. prices rose 6.1%.
- The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, increased 5.1% to a reading of 116.3 in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was 4.6% above the April 2015 level.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates increasing. Despite this increase, the average for the month was 3.60%, the lowest monthly average in 3 years. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.64% for the week ending May 26, up from last week when it averaged 3.58%, A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.87%.
- Mortgage applications increased 2.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 20th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 10 thousand to 268 thousand in the week ending May 21. The 4-week moving average was 278.5 thousand, an increase of 2.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for May rose to 94.7, from 89.0 in April. This was the fifth highest reading since January 2007. The current conditions index increased to 109.9 in May from 106.7, while the expectations index increased to 84.9 from 77.6.
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Friday, May 20th, 2016
- Total Industrial production increased 0.7% in April, following a 0.9% decrease in the previous month. The index of industrial production in was 1.1% below its year-ago level. Manufacturing output increased 0.3% in April, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Output of mining decreased 2.3%, while output of utilizes increased 5.8%.
- The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 75.4%, 4.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2015) average.
- Housing starts were up 6.6% in April from the previous month, but were down 1.7% from a year ago. Building permits were up 3.6% in April from the previous month, but were down 5.3% from April 2015.
- April existing home sales increased 1.7% to an annualized rate of 5,450 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were up 6.0% from a year ago. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $232.5 thousand, 6.3% above April 2013. There were 2,140 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 4.7 months at the current sales rate, compared to 5.2 in April of 2015.
- The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo held steady at 58 in May. The index was 54 a year ago, and 61 in January 2016.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.58% for the week ending May 19, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.57%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.84%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.81%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.05%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 13th.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in April, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.1% for the 12-month period ending in April, while the core index rose 2.1%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 16 thousand to 278 thousand in the week ending May 14. The 4-week moving average was 275.75 thousand, an increase of 7.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1% from March to April. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index.
- Labor productivity rose in 15 of 28 selected service providing industries in 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was fewer than in 2014, when labor productivity increased in 20 of 28 industries. Labor productivity in the wireless telecommunications carriers sector surged 26.5% in 2015, when output grew 11.3% and hours worked decreased 12.0%.
- The May 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline index of general business conditions decreased nineteen points to negative 9.0. On the other hand, the prices paid index decreased 2.5 points to 16.7 and the prices received index fell 6 points to negative 3.1.
- The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for May reported that manufacturing activity in the region was weak. The diffusion index for current activity has registered a negative reading in eight of the last nine months.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in April, while the coincident economic index increased 0.3%. Both indexes held steady in March. In the six-month period ending April 2016, the leading index increased 0.6% (about 1.1% annual rate), while the coincident index rose 0.8% (about 1.6% annual rate).
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Friday, May 13th, 2016
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for April were up 1.3% from March, and were up 3.0% from April 2015. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.5% from the same period a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for March were up 0.3% from the previous month, but were down 1.7% from a year ago. Total business inventories were up 0.4% from February, and were up from March 2015.
- Sales of merchant wholesalers in March were up 0.7%, while inventories were up 0.1%. Sales of durable goods were down 0.2%, while sales of nondurable goods were up 1.6%. The March inventories/sales ratio was 1.36, compared with 1.32 in March of 2015.
- The federal government budget ran a surplus of $106.5 billion in April, after a deficit of $108.8 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal year 2016 was $354.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $282.8 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3%, after posting “no change” in March. The producer price index for final demand was unchanged for the 12 months ended in April, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.9%.
- The import price index increased 0.3% in April, the same increase as in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.5%, after holding steady in the previous month. The import price index decreased 5.7% from April 2015, while the price index for exports decreased 5.0%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 20 thousand to 294 thousand in the week ending May 7. This was the highest level for initial claims since February 28, 2015. The 4-week moving average was 268.25 thousand, an increase of 10.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- There were 5,757 thousand job openings on the last business day of March, compared with 5,608 thousand in February. The job openings rate for March was 3.9%.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates decreased to a new low in 2016 and the lowest mark in 3 years. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.57% for the week ending May 12, down from last week when it averaged 3.61%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.85%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.81%, down from last week when it averaged 2.86%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.07%.
- Mortgage applications edged up 0.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 6th.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for May, preliminary, increased to 95.8, largely due to more frequent income gains, an improved jobs outlook, and the expectation of lower inflation and interest rates. The index was 89.0 in April, and 90.7 in May of 2015.
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Friday, May 6th, 2016
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose 160 thousand in April, following an increase of 208 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased by 171 thousand in the month, while government employment decreased by 11 thousand.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in April.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 8 cents to $25.53. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 17 thousand to 274 thousand in the week ending April 30. The 4-week moving average was 258 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week.
- First quarter productivity decreased 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 1.7% decrease in the final quarter of 2015. From the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, productivity increased 0.6%. Unit labor costs increased 4.1% in the first quarter of 2016, reflecting a 3.0% increase in hourly compensation and a 1.0% decline in productivity.
- Sales of domestic cars decreased 0.8% in April, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 5.2%. Total vehicle sales were 17.3 million units in April, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.7 million in April of 2015.
- New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1% in March, while shipments increased 0.5%. Year-to-date new orders were down 2.0% from the same period in 2015, while shipments were down 2.2%. Excluding transportation, shipments were up 1.0% in March, while new orders were up 0.8%.
- In March international trade deficit was $40.4 billion, $6.5 billion less than the revised February figure. March exports were $176.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than February exports. March imports were $217.1 billion, $8.1 billion less than February imports. Year-to-date the goods and services deficit decreased $1.0 billion, or 0.8%, from the same period in 2015.
- March construction spending was up 0.3% from the previous month, and was up 8.0% from March 2015, according to U.S. Census Bureau. Private construction increased 1.1% in March, while public construction decreased 1.9%.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.61% for the week ending May 5th, down from last week when it averaged 3.66%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.80%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.86%, down from last week when it averaged 3.89%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.02%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 3.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 29, 2016.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the second consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 83rd consecutive month.
- In April, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 75th consecutive month. Thirteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth, while four industries reported contraction in April.
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