Key Economic Indicators – March 6, 2017

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016, after increasing 3.5% in the previous quarter, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the “advance” estimate, released about a month ago, the increase in real GDP also 1.9%.
  • Real final sales of domestic product increased 0.9%, following a 3.0% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.  The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.2%, following an increase of 1.7% in the previous quarter.
  • Real GDP increased 1.6% in 2016, compared with an increase of 2.6% in 2015. Current-dollar GDP increased 2.9%, or $529.0 billion, in 2016 to a level of $18,565.6 billion, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent, or $643.5 billion, in 2015.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0% in 2016, compared with an increase of 0.4% in 2015.
  • Personal income increased 0.4% in January, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures, which increased 0.5% in December, increased 0.2% in January. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4% in January, while the core index increased 0.2%. The price index (headline index) was up 1.9% from January 2016, while the core index was up 1.7%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.8% in January while shipments decreased 0.1%.
  • Retail inventories for January were up 0.8% from December 2016, and were up 4.0% from January 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Wholesale inventories for January were down 0.1% from December 2016, but were up 2.2% from January 2016.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 10.3% in January, following a 1.5% increase in the previous month. Total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 4.6%, following a 3.4% increase in the previous month. Total light vehicle sales were 17.5 million units in January, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.8 million in January of 2016.
  • The international trade deficit of goods was $69.2 billion in January, up $4.9 billion from $64.4 billion in December. Exports of goods for January decreased $0.4 billion to $126.2 billion, and imports of goods increased $4.4 billion to $195.4 billion.
  • January construction spending was down 1.0% from the previous month, but was up 3.1% from a year ago. Private construction increased 0.2% in January, while public construction decreased 5.0%.
  • The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted a 5.8% annual gain in December, up from 5.6% last month and setting a 30-month high. The 10-city Composite index increased 4.9% from a year ago, while the 20-city composite index increased 5.6%.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 2.8% to a reading of 106.4 in January, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was 106.0 in January 2016.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.10% for the week ending March 2, down from last week when it averaged 4.16%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.64%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.8% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 24th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 19 thousand to 223 thousand in the week ending February 25. This is the lowest level since March 31, 1973 when it was 222 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 234.25 thousand, a decrease of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level since April 14, 1973 when it was 232.75 thousand.
  • Annual average unemployment rates decreased in 38 states and the District of Columbia, increased in 9 states, and were unchanged in 3 states in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment-population ratios increased in 36 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 12 states, and were unchanged in 2 states.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 114.8 (1985=100), up from 111.6 in January. The Present Situation Index rose from 130.0 to 133.4, and the Expectations Index increased from 99.3 to 102.4.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 93rd consecutive month.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace from early January through mid-February.
  • The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, which provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the banking systems, ticked up to negative 0.79 in the week ending February 24, from negative 0.8 in previous week. The risk, credit and leverage sub-indexes all ticked up from the previous week, while the nonfinancial leverage sub-index was unchanged. Positive values of the Index indicate financial conditions that are tighter than on average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than on average.

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