Current-Cast® Report

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2%.

·      Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.6% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the previous quarter.

·      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

·      Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 43 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth in the first quarter ranged from 3.9% in Texas to negative 4.0% in Nebraska.

·      New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 6.5% in June, while shipments held steady. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.0%, while shipments were up 3.0%.

·      June existing home sales were down 1.8% from the previous month, but were up 0.7% from June 2016. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $263.8 thousand, 6.5% above June 2016.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 27th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% for the week ending July 27^th, down from last week when it averaged 3.96%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.48%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 0.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 21.

·      In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244 thousand, an increase of 10 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 244 thousand, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average.

·      Housing starts rose 8.3% in June, while building permits increased 7.4%.

·      The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index (HMI) decreased 2 points to 64 in July. The Index was 67 in January, and 58 a year ago.

·      Mortgage applications increased 6.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 14th.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 233 thousand in the week ending July 15, a decrease of 15 thousand from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 243.75 thousand, a decrease of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The import price index decreased 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The export price index decreased 0.2%, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. The import price index increased 1.5% from June 2016, while export prices increased 0.6%.

·      The July 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew modestly for New York manufacturers.

·      The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for July reported growth at a slower pace in manufacturing activity.

·      The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in June, while the coincident index increased 0.2%.

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for June were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 2.8% from June 2016. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.9% from the same period a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for May were down 0.2%, while inventories were up 0.3%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of May was 1.38, compared with 1.41 in May 2016.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in May were down 0.5% from the previous month, but were up 6.2% from May of 2016. Sales of durable goods were down 0.1% in May, while sales of nondurable goods were down 0.9%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 1.9% from May 2016.  The May inventories/sales ratio was 1.29, compared with 1.34 a year ago.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.4% in June, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 2.0% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.6%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, but 0.8 percentage point above its level in June 2016.

·      May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.8%. Revolving credit increased 8.7%, while non-revolving credit increased 4.7%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates increasing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.03% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.96%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.42%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.29% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.22%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 7.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 7th.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in June, after holding steady in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2%, after a decrease of 0.1% in May. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.0% for the 12 months ended in June, and the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also increased 2.0%.

·      The consumer price index held steady in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.7%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from May to June. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 247 thousand in the week ending July 8. The 4-week moving average was 245.75 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 1 was 1,945 thousand, a decrease of 20 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,949.25 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in May in 9 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-two states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 28 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 states and the District of Columbia in May 2017, decreased in 4, and was essentially unchanged in 37 states. Over the year, 28 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 22 states and the District were essentially unchanged.

·      The number of job openings decreased to 5.7 million on the last business day of May. Over the month, hires increased to 5.5 million, and separations increased to 5.3 million.

·      The Federal Reserve Board’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity expanded across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in June, with the pace of growth ranging from slight to moderate.

·      Total non-farm payroll employment rose 222 thousand in June, following an increase of 152 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 187 thousand in May, while government employment increased by 35 thousand. The average monthly gain in employment was 180 thousand per month thus far this year. Employment rose in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining.

·      The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in June, from 4.3% in May. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in June 2016.

·      The number of unemployed increased by 116 thousand to 6.977 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by a thousand to 1.664 million and accounted for 24.3% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 322 thousand.

·      The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 62.8% in June, but has shown no clear trend over the past 12 months.

·      The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in June.

·      In June, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 4 cents to $26.25. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 4 thousand to 248 thousand in the week ending July 1. The 4-week moving average was 243 thousand, an increase of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 24 was 1,956 thousand, an increase of 11 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,944.75 thousand, an increase of 6.750 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.8% in May, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Shipments increased 0.1%, following a less than 0.1% increase in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were up 4.4%, and shipments were up 4.6%.

·      Sales of domestic cars decreased 5.0% in June, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 1.0%. Total vehicle sales were 16.4 million units in June, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.5 million in January 2017, and 16.8 million in June of 2016.

·      In May, international trade deficit in goods and services was $46.5 billion, down $1.1 billion from April. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $192.0 billion, and imports decreased $0.2 billion to $238.5 billion. The cumulative deficit was $233.1 billion for the first five months of 2017, compared with a deficit of $206.0 billion for the same period of the previous year.

·      May construction spending was virtually unchanged from the previous month, and was up 4.5% from a year ago. Residential construction decreased 0.5% in May, while nonresidential construction increased 0.3%. Total private construction decreased 0.6% in May, while total public construction increased 2.1%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates turned up sharply over the last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.96% for the week ending July 6, up from last week when it averaged 3.88%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.41%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.22% for the week ending July 6, up from the previous week when it averaged 3.17%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.74%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 1.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 30th.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in June, and the overall economy grew for the 97th consecutive month. The headline index was 57.8, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from May. The New Orders Index was up 4 percentage points from the previous month, while the Production Index was up 5.3 percentage points. The Employment Index was 57.2, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from May.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 90^th consecutive month. Sixteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June, and one industry reported contraction.