Key Economic Indicators – July 17, 2017

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for June were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 2.8% from June 2016. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.9% from the same period a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for May were down 0.2%, while inventories were up 0.3%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of May was 1.38, compared with 1.41 in May 2016.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in May were down 0.5% from the previous month, but were up 6.2% from May of 2016. Sales of durable goods were down 0.1% in May, while sales of nondurable goods were down 0.9%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 1.9% from May 2016.  The May inventories/sales ratio was 1.29, compared with 1.34 a year ago.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.4% in June, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 2.0% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.6%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, but 0.8 percentage point above its level in June 2016.

·      May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.8%. Revolving credit increased 8.7%, while non-revolving credit increased 4.7%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates increasing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.03% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.96%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.42%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.29% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.22%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 7.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 7th.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in June, after holding steady in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2%, after a decrease of 0.1% in May. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.0% for the 12 months ended in June, and the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also increased 2.0%.

·      The consumer price index held steady in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.7%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from May to June. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 247 thousand in the week ending July 8. The 4-week moving average was 245.75 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 1 was 1,945 thousand, a decrease of 20 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,949.25 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in May in 9 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-two states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 28 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 states and the District of Columbia in May 2017, decreased in 4, and was essentially unchanged in 37 states. Over the year, 28 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 22 states and the District were essentially unchanged.

·      The number of job openings decreased to 5.7 million on the last business day of May. Over the month, hires increased to 5.5 million, and separations increased to 5.3 million.

·      The Federal Reserve Board’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity expanded across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in June, with the pace of growth ranging from slight to moderate.

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