Key Economic Indicators – October 2, 2017

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 1.2%. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.0% for the second quarter of 2017.

·      Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.9% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.9% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.0% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0% in the previous quarter.

·      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the previous quarter.

·      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

·      Corporate profits from current production increased $14.4 billion in the second quarter of 2017, after a decrease of $46.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $33.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $40.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $59.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $10.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion in the previous quarter.

·      Personal income increased 0.2% in August, and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. Both real disposable personal income and real personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1% in August. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (headline index) increased 0.2%, while the core index increased 0.1% in August.  The price index for personal consumption expenditures (headline index) increased 1.4% from August 2016, while the core index increased 1.3%. 

·      State personal income grew 0.7% on average in the second quarter of 2017, after increasing 1.4% in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each of the major aggregates of personal income grew more slowly than in the first quarter. Personal income grew 1.3% in Nevada, faster than in any other state. Iowa, Nebraska, and West Virginia had the slowest growth in personal income.

·      New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.7% in August, while shipments increased 0.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.0%, and shipments were up 3.3% from the same period a year ago.

·      August new home sales were down 3.4% from the previous month, and were down 1.2% from August 2016 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $300.2 thousand, 0.4% above August 2016.

·      The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 2.6% to a reading of 106.3 in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Index was down 2.6% from August 2016.

·      The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted annual increases of 5.2% and 5.8% in June, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. The National Index, covering all nine U.S. Census divisions, increased 5.9% from a year ago.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates unchanged from the previous week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.83% for the week ending September 28, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.42%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.13% for the week ending September 28, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.72%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 0.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 22nd.

·      The international trade deficit in goods was $62.9 billion in August, down $1.4 billion from $63.9 billion in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for August were $128.9 billion, $0.3 billion more than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $191.8 billion, $0.6 billion less than July imports.

·      Retail inventories for August were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 3.7% from August 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

·      Wholesale inventories for August were up 1.0% from the previous month, and were up 4.6% from August 2016. 

·      Unemployment rates were lower in August than a year earlier in 323 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 55 areas, and unchanged in 10 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 326 metropolitan areas, decreased in 55 areas, and was unchanged in 7 areas.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 12 thousand to 272 thousand in the week ending September 23. The 4-week moving average was 277.75 thousand, an increase of 9 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending September 16 was 1,934 thousand, a decrease of 45 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,949.75 thousand, a decrease of 2.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had improved marginally in August, declined slightly in September. The Index now stands at 119.8 (1985=100), down from 120.4 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased from 148.4 to 146.1, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 101.7 last month to 102.2.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment edged down to 95.1 in September, from 96.8 in August. The Index was 91.2 a year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased from 110.9 to 111.7, while the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 87.7 to 84.4.

 

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