Key Economic Indicators – January 8, 2018

  •  Total non-farm payroll employment increased 148 thousand in December, following an increase of 252 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 146 thousand in December, while government employment increased by 2 thousand. In 2017, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.2 million in 2016.

    ·      The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in December. The unemployment rate was 4.7% in December 2016.

    ·      The number of unemployed decreased by 40 thousand to 6.576 million. Over the year, the number of unemployed was down by 926 thousand. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.5 million and accounted for 22.9% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 354 thousand.

    ·      The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7% in December, unchanged over the year.

    ·      The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in December.

    ·      In December, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 9 cents to $26.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

    ·      Unemployment rates were lower in November than a year earlier in 304 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 67 areas, and unchanged in 17 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 313 metropolitan areas, decreased in 70 areas, and was unchanged in 5 areas.

    ·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 4 thousand to 250 thousand in the week ending December 30. The 4-week moving average was 241.75 thousand, an increase of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending December 23 was 1,914 thousand, a decrease of 37 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,922.5 thousand, an increase of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

    ·      Sales of domestic cars decreased 4.8% in December, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 2.1%. Total vehicle sales were 17.8 million units in December, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.4 million in the previous month, and 18.1 million in December of 2016. Sales of domestic cars decreased 10.3% to 4.6 million for the year 2017, while total vehicle sales decreased 1.9% to 17.1 million.

    ·      New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3% in November, while shipments increased 1.2%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.8% from the same period in 2016, while shipments were up 5.2%. Inventories in November were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 0.6% from a year ago.

    ·      In November, international trade deficit was $50.5 billion, $1.6 billion more than the revised October figure. November exports were $200.2 billion, $4.4 billion more than October exports. November imports were $250.7 billion, $6.0 billion more than October imports. The cumulative trade deficit for the first eleven months of 2017 was $513.6 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $460.2 billion during the first eleven months of 2016 (11.6% increase).

    ·      Construction spending in November was up 0.8% from the previous month, and was up 2.4% from November 2016. Private construction increased 1.0%, while public construction increased 0.2%.

    ·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of January 4th showed that average mortgage rates dropping to stat the year. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.95% for the week ending January 4, 2018, down from last week when it averaged 3.99%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.20%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.38%, down from last week when it averaged 3.44%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.44%.

    ·      Mortgage applications decreased 2.8% from two weeks earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 29. 

    ·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 103rd consecutive month.

    ·      In December, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity (exceeded 50.0%) for the 96th consecutive month. Fourteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth, and three industries reported contraction.

    ·      The Federal Reserve Bank Chicago’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) held steady at negative 0.89 in the week ending December 29. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.40, credit indicators contributed negative 0.30, and leverage indicators contributed negative 0.17 to the index in the latest week.

 

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