March 13th, 2020
- The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $118.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
- Domestic nonfinancial debt outstanding was $54.3 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, of which household debt was $16.1 trillion, nonfinancial business debt was $16.1 trillion, and total government debt was $22.1 trillion.
- Household debt increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, while nonfinancial business debt rose at an annual rate of 2.2%. Federal government debt increased 3.8% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, while state and local government debt expanded at an annual rate of 4.4%.
- The import price index decreased 0.5% in February, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The export price index decreased 1.1% in February, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 1.2% from February 2019 to February 2020, while export prices decreased 1.3%.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.6% in February, following an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1%, following an increase 0.4% as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) was up 1.3% from February 2019 to February 2020, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade was up 1.4%.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in February, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.3% for the 12-month period ending in February, while the core index rose 2.4%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3% from January to February. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 4 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending March 7. The 4-week moving average was 214 thousand, an increase of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 29 was 1,722 thousand, a decrease of 11 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,727.5 thousand, an increase of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- U.S. selected services total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $4,127.1 billion, an increase of 1.0% from the third quarter of 2019 and up 4.6% from the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, The second quarter to third quarter percentage change was 1.5%.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates generally moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.36% for the week ending March 12, up from last week when it averaged 3.29%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.31%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.79%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.76%.
- Mortgage applications increased 55.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 6th.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for early March fell to 95.9, from 101.0 in February due to the spreading coronavirus and the steep declines in stock prices. The index was 98.4 a year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 114.8 in February to 112.5 in March, and the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 92.1 in February to 85.3 in March.
- The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made changes to monthly schedule of Treasury securities operations and repurchase agreement (repo) operations because of highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak. On March 12th and March 13th, the Desk offered a total of $1. 5 trillion in three-month and one-month repo operations. It was stated that “Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule. The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.”
- On Sunday, March 15th, the FOMC decided to lower the target range of federal funds rate to 0 to 0.25%. The Committee “expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. The Committee stated that “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected.”
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
March 6th, 2020
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 273 thousand in February, the same increase as in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 228 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 45 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.
- In February, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5%, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 105 thousand to at 5.787 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.1 million, changed little in February and accounted for 19.2% of the unemployed.
- The labor force participation rate held steady at 63.4% in February. The rate was 63.1% in February of 2019.
- The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents to $28.52. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.0%.
- Fourth quarter productivity increased 1.2% in the non-farm business sector, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous period, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hourly compensation increased 2.1%, while unit labor costs increased 0.9%. From the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.8%, reflecting increases in output and hours worked of 2.6% and 0.8%, respectively.
- Non-farm business sector productivity grew 1.9% in the year 2019, as output increased 2.7% and hours worked increased 0.8%. The 1.9% increase is the largest annual increase since 2010, when it increased 3.4%. The 0.8% increase in hours worked is the smallest increase in the annual series since 2010 (-0.1%). The average annual rate of nonfarm business sector productivity growth from 2007 to 201 is 1.4%, which is below the long-term rate from 1947 to 2019 of 2.1%.
- In 2019, annual average unemployment rates decreased in 10 states, increased in 1 state, and were little changed in 39 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment-population ratios increased in 16 states, decreased in 2 states, and were little changed in 32 states and the District.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 216 thousand in the week ending February 29. The 4-week moving average was 213 thousand, an increase of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 22 was 1,729 thousand, an increase of 7 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,721.25 thousand, a decrease of 7.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- In January international trade deficit was $45.3 billion, $3.3 billion less than the revised December figure. January exports were $208.6 billion, $0.9 billion less than December exports. January imports were $253.9 billion, $4.2 billion less than December imports. Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit decreased $8.5 billion, or 15.8%, from January 2019. Exports increased $2.3 billion or 1.1%. Imports decreased $6.2 billion or 2.4% from a year ago.
- Construction spending in January 2018 was 1.8% above the December figure. The January figure was 6.8% above the January 2019 level. Residential construction was up 2.0% from the previous month, and nonresidential construction was up 1.6%. Private construction was up 1.5% and total public construction was up 2.6% in January.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates hit all-time low. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.29% for the week ending March 5, down from last week when it averaged 3.45%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.41%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.79%, down from last week when it averaged 2.95%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.83%.
- Mortgage applications increased 15.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 28th.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector grew in February, and the overall economy grew for the 130th consecutive month.
- In February, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity (exceeded 50.0%) for the 121st consecutive month. Sixteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth, and two reported contraction.
- The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate rate over the past several weeks. Consumer spending generally picked up, but growth was uneven across the nation. There were indications that the corona-virus was negatively impacting travel and tourism. Several Districts said that producers in manufacturing feared further disruptions in the coming weeks because of the corona-virus. While employment grew across most sectors, manufacturers, retailers, and transportation companies reported lower demand for labor in some Districts. Wages grew at a modest to moderate rate in most Districts. Firms reported that the tight labor market and minimum wage increases were putting upward pressure on wages. Most Districts reported modest growth in selling prices, as well as in non-labor input prices.
- On March 3rd, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee stated, “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the corona-virus poses evolving risks to economic activity.” The Committee made the emergency rate cut considering these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals. The Committee also reiterated: “The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
February 28th, 2020
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP also increased 2.1%.
- Real final sales of domestic product increased 3.1%, following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the same increase as in the previous quarter. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.2%, following an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.
- Real GDP increased 2.3% in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.9% in 2018. Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1%, or $846.9 billion, in 2019 to a level of $21.43 trillion, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent, or $1,060.8 billion, in 2018.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.4% in 2018. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, compared with an increase of 2.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6%, compared with an increase of 1.9% in 2018.
- Personal income increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Disposable personal income increased 0.6%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index (price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy) increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The price index (headline index) was up 1.7% from January 2019 to January 2020, while the core index was up 1.6%.
- Both new orders and shipments for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.2% in January. New orders in January 2020 decreased 2.3% from January 2019, while shipments decreased 2.2%.
- Retail inventories for January were virtually unchanged from December 2019, and were up 0.3% from January 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Wholesale inventories for January were down 0.2% from December 2019, and were up 0.6% from January 2019.
- The international trade deficit of goods was $65.5 billion in January, down $3.2 billion from $68.7 billion in December. Exports of goods for January decreased $1.4 billion to $135.7 billion, and imports of goods decreased $4.6 billion to $201.2 billion.
- Sales of new single-family houses in January were at an annual rate of 764 thousand, 7.9% above December 2019 and 18.6% above January 2019, according estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates falling. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45% for the week ending February 27, down from last week when it averaged 3.49%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.35%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.95%, down from last week when it averaged 2.99%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.77%.
- Mortgage applications increased 1.5% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 21, 2020.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 8 thousand to 219 thousand in the week ending February 22. The 4-week moving average was 209.75 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 15 was 1,724 thousand, a decrease of 9 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,729.25 thousand, an increase of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in January, improved slightly in February. The Index now stands at 130.7 (1985=100), up from 130.4 in January. The Present Situation Index decreased from 173.9 to 165.1, and the Expectations Index increased from 101.4 to 107.8.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for February was 101.0, up from 98.8 in January. The Index was 93.8 in February 2019. The Current Economic Conditions Index edged up from 114.4 in January to 114.8 in February, while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased from 90.5 to 92.1.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
February 21st, 2020
- Housing starts in January were 1,567 thousand, down 3.6% from the previous month but were up 21.4% from a year ago. Building permits in January were 1,551 thousand units, up 9.2% from the previous month, and up 17.9% from January 2019.
- January existing home sales were down 1.3% from the previous month, but were up 9.6% from January 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $266.3 thousand, 6.8% above January 2019. There were 1.42 million existing homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 3.3 months at the current sales rate, compared to 3.8 in January of 2019.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed little change. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.49% for the week ending February 20, slightly up from last week when it averaged 4.37%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.35%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.97%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.78%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 6.4% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 14th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 4 thousand to 210 thousand in the week ending February 15. The 4-week moving average was 209 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 8 was 1,726 thousand, an increase of 25 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,722.25 thousand, a decrease of 5.250 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- From September 2018 to September 2019, employment increased in 283 of the 355 largest U.S. counties, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In September 2019, national employment (as measured by the Quarterly County Employment and Wages program) increased to 148.6 million, a 1.1% increase over the year. New Hanover, NC, had the largest over-the-year increase in employment with a gain of 5.8%. In the third quarter of 2019, average weekly wages for the nation increased to $1,093, a 3.6% increase over the year. Among the 355 largest counties, 350 had over-the-year increases in average weekly wages. Boulder, CO, had the largest third quarter over-the-year wage gain at 18.4%.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.5% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for final demand less foods, energy and trade increased 0.4% in January, after a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The headline index increased 2.1% from January 2019 to January 2020, while the index for final demand less foods, energy and trade increased 1.5%.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.8% in January, following a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 0.1% (about a 0.2% annual rate), much slower than the growth of 0.8% over the previous six months. The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.1% in January, after holding steady in the previous month. Over the six-month span through January, the coincident index increased 0.8% (about a 1.7% annual rate), faster than the growth of 0.3% over the previous six months.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
February 14th, 2020
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were up 0.3% from the previous month and were up 4.4% from January 2019. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.3% from the previous month, and were up 4.0% from a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales decreased 0.1% in December, while inventories increased 0.1%. Sales were up 1.7% from a year ago, and inventories were up 2.2% from December 2018. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of December was 1.40, compared with 1.39 in December 2018.
- Total Industrial production decreased 0.3% in January, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. Total Industrial production was 0.8% lower in January than it was a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.8%, a level 3.0 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 2.2 percentage points below its level in January 2019.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed-rate mortgages moving slightly higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.47% for the week ending February 13th, slightly up from last week when it averaged 3.45%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.37%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.97% for the week ending February 13th, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.81%.
- Mortgage applications increased 1.1% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2020.
- The import price index held steady in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Import prices increased 0.3% from January 2019 to January 2020. The export price index increased 0.7% in January, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Export prices increased 0.5% from January 2019 to January 2020.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.2% in January, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 2.3%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1% in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The number of job openings decreased to 6.4 million on the last business day of December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 205 thousand in the week ending February 8. The 4-week moving average was 212 thousand, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 1 was 1,698 thousand, a decrease of 61 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,726.75 thousand, a decrease of 17.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for February was 100.9, up from 99.8 in January. The index was 93.8 in February of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 113.8 in early February, compared with 114.4 in January. The index of consumer expectations increased to 92.6 in February, from 90.5 in January.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
February 7th, 2020
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 225 thousand in January, following an increase of 147 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 206 thousand in January, while government employment increased by 19 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
- The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% in January, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 139 thousand to 5.892 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.0%, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.516 million
- The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 20 thousand to 1.166 million and accounted for 19.9% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 93 thousand.
- The labor force participation was 63.4% in January, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month and from January 2019.
- The average workweek of all employees on private non-farm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in January.
- In January, average hourly earnings of all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $28.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
- Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 266 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 101 areas, and unchanged in 22 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 136 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0% and 3 areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Non-farm payroll employment increased over the year in 45 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 344 areas.
- Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.5% and hours worked increased 1.1%. From the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.8%, reflecting a 2.7% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the non-farm business sector increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019 as hourly compensation grew at a faster rate (2.8%) than productivity (1.4%). Unit labor costs increased 2.4% over the last four quarters. Annual average productivity increased 1.7% from 2018 to 2019, as output increased 2.7% and hours worked increased 1.0%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 15 thousand to 202 thousand in the week ending February 1. The 4-week moving average was 211.75 thousand, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending January 25 was 1,751 thousand, an increase of 48 thousand from the previous week’s level of 1,703 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,742.25 thousand, a decrease of 13.25 thousand from the previous week’s average of 1,755.5 thousand.
- New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8% in December, following a 1.2% decrease in November. Shipments increased 0.5%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Inventories were up 0.5% from the previous month. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.6% in the year 2019 and shipments increased 0.6%.
- Sales of domestic cars decreased 9.6% in January, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 1.2%. Total vehicle sales were 16.8 million units in January, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.7 million in January 2019 and 17.1 million in January 2018.
- In December international trade deficit was $48.9 billion, $5.2 billion more than the revised November figure. December exports were $209.6 billion, $1.5 billion more than November exports. December imports were $258.5 billion, $6.7 billion more than November imports.
- For 2019, the goods and services deficit decreased $10.9 billion, or 1.7%, from 2018. Exports decreased $1.5 billion or 0.1%. Imports decreased $12.5 billion or 0.4%. As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit were 2.9% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018.
- Construction spending in December 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,327.9 billion, 0.2% below the revised November estimate. The December figure is 5.0% above the December 2018 figure. Private Construction decreased 0.1% in December, while public construction decreased 0.4%. Construction spending for the year 2019 was 0.3% below the spending in 2018.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.45% for the week ending February 6, down from last week when it averaged 3.51%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.41%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.97% for the week ending February 6, down from last week when it averaged 3.00%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.84%.
- Mortgage applications increased 5.0% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2020.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
January 31st, 2020
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1%. Real final sales of domestic product increased 3.2%, following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.6%, compared with an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.
- Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2019, compared with an increase of 2.9% in 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6% in 2019, compared to an increase of 2.4% in 2018. Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1% in 2019 to a level of $21.429 trillion, compared with an increase of 5.4% in 2018.
- Personal income increased 0.2%, in December, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. Real disposable income decreased 0.1% in December, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. The personal saving rate, personal saving as percentage of disposable income, was 7.6%, compared with 7.8 in November.
- Personal income increased 4.5% in the year 2019. Disposable personal income increased 4.4% in the year 2019, while personal consumption expenditures increased 4.0%. The saving rate was 8.0% for the year 2019, compared with 7.7 in the year 2018.
- The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in December, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index excluding food and energy increased 0.2%, after a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index increased 1.6% from December 2018, while the index excluding food and energy also increased 1.6%.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.4% in December, while shipments decreased 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. New orders in the year 2019 were down 1.5% from 2018, while shipments were up 0.9%.
- Retail inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $661.2 billion, up less than 0.1% from November 2019, and were up 1.2% from December 2018.
- Wholesale inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $675.6 billion, down 0.1% from November 2019, but were up 2.3% from December 2018.
- The international trade deficit was $68.3 billion in December, up $5.3 billion from $63.0 billion in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for December were $137.0 billion, $0.4 billion more than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $205.3 billion, $5.8 billion more than November imports.
- December new home sales decreased 0.4% to an annualized rate of 694 thousand units. The December figure was 23.0% above the December 2018 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $384.5 thousand, 8.5% above December 2018. Sales were 681 thousand units in the year 2019, 10.3% above the previous year.
- U.S. House prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, after increasing 0.4% in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices rose 4.9%.
- National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2019 were 6.4% for rental housing and 1.4% for homeowner housing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The rental vacancy rate of 6.4% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (6.6%), but 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (6.8%). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.4% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (1.5%) and virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2019.
- The home-ownership rate of 65.1% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (64.8%) nor from the rate in the third quarter 2019 (also 64.8%).
- In the fourth quarter 2019, the median asking rent for vacant for rent units was $1,005. In the fourth quarter 2019, the median asking sales price for vacant for sale units was $226,800.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates continued their downward movement. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.51% for the week ending January 30, down from last week when it averaged 3.60%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.46%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.00% for the week ending January 30, down from last week when it averaged 3.04%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.89%.
- Mortgage applications increased 7.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 24,2020.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 7 thousand to 216 thousand in the week ending January 25. The 4-week moving average was 214.5 thousand, a decrease of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% and benefit costs increased 0.5% from September 2019. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7% for the 12-month period ending in December 2019, compared to 2.9% in December 2018. Wages and salaries increased 2.9% over the year and increased 3.1% for the 12-month period ending in December 2018. Benefit costs increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending in December 2019. In December 2018, the increase was 2.8%.
- From March 2019 to June 2019, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.6 million, an increase of 230 thousand jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.4 million, an increase of 573 thousand jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 182 thousand jobs in the private sector during the second quarter of 2019.
- Manufacturing sector multi-factor productivity declined 1.0% in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The multi-factor productivity decline in 2018 reflected a 0.6% decrease in sectoral output and a 0.3% increase in combined inputs. The decrease in multi-factor productivity followed a revised 0.3% increase in 2017.
- The Chicago FED National Activity Index decreased to negative 0.35 in December, from positive 0.41 in November. The index’s three-month moving average was negative 0.23, compared with negative 0.31 in November.
- The Chicago FED National Financial Conditions index (NFCI) ticked down to negative 0.82 in the week ending January 24. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.34, credit indicators contributed negative 0.33, and leverage indicators contributed negative 0.15 to the index in the latest week.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased in January, following a moderate increase in December. The Index now stands at 131.6 (1985=100), up from 128.2 in December. The Present Situation Index increased from 170.5 to 175.3. The Expectations Index increased from 100.0 last month to 102.5 this month.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for January was 99.8, up slightly from 99.3 in December. The Index was 91.2 in January 2019. The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 115.5 in December to 114.4 in January, while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased from 88.9 to 90.5.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1.50% to 1.75%. The Committee indicated that labor market conditions remained strong and economic activity continued to expand at a moderate rate. “The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
January 24th, 2020
- December existing home sales increased 3.6% to an annualized rate of 5.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The December figure was 10.8 % above the December 2018 figure. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $274.5 thousand, 7.8% above December 2018. The housing inventory at the end of December dropped 14.6% to 1.4 million from 1.64 million existing homes for sale in November. Unsold inventory is at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.7 last month and a year ago. Total sales for the year 2019 was 5.34 million, unchanged from 2018.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates dropping to their lowest levels in three months. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.60% for the week ending January 23, down from last week when it averaged 3.65%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.45%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.04%, down from last week when it averaged 3.09%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.88%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2020.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 6 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending January 18. The 4-week moving average was 213.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending January 11 was 1,731 thousand, a decrease of 37 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,757.75 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Unemployment rates were lower in December in 11 states, higher in 4 states, and stable in 35 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eight states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, one state had an increase, and 41 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, was unchanged over the month but was 0.4 percentage point lower than in December 2018. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 3 states in December 2019 and was essentially unchanged in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 26 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 24 states and the District were essentially unchanged.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators decreased 0.3% in December, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the last six months of 2019, the index decreased 0.4% (about -0.7% annual rate), slower than the growth of 0.5% (about 0.9% annual rate) over the first half of the year.The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.1% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November. The coincident index rose 0.8% (about 1.5% annual rate) during the last six months of 2019, slightly faster than the growth of 0.5% (about 0.9% annual rate) over the first half of the year.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
January 17th, 2020
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for December were up 0.3% from November and were up 5.8% from December 2018. Total sales for the year 2019 were up 3.6% from the year 2018.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for November were up 0.7% from October and were up 1.0% from November 2018. Inventories were down 0.2% from the previous month but were up 2.8% from a year ago. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of November was 1.39, compared with 1.37 a year ago.
- Total Industrial production decreased 0.3% in December, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The index was 1.0% below the level in December 2018. The manufacturing index was up 0.2% in December, while the index for utilities was down 5.6%. The index for mining was up 1.3% in December. Total Industrial production for the year 2019 was down 0.9% from the previous year.
- The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 77.0% in December, compared with 77.4 in November of 2019, and 79.5 in December of 2018. The average for the index was 79.8 during 1972-2018 period.
- Housing starts in December were 1,608 thousand, up 16.9% from the previous month and were up 40.8% from a year ago. Building permits in December were 1,416 thousand units, down 3.9% from the previous month, but were up 5.8% from December 2018.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates generally hold steady. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.65% for the week ending January 16, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.64%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.45%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.09%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.07%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.88%.
- Mortgage applications increased 30.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2020.
- The federal government budget ran a deficit of $13.3 billion in December, after a deficit of $208.8 billion in the previous month. The cumulative deficit for the first three months of the fiscal year 2020 was $356.6 billion, compared with the deficit of $318.8 billion for the first three months of the previous fiscal year.
- The import price index in December was up 0.3% from November and was up 0.5% from December of 2018. The export price index was down 0.2% from November and was down 0.7% from December of 2018.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in December, after holding steady in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.1% in December, after posting no change in the previous month. The headline index increased 1.3% from December 2018 to December 2019, while the index for final demand less foods, energy and trade increased 1.5%.
- The consumer price index (headline index) rose 0.2% in December, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.3% for the 12-month period ending in December. The core index rose also 2.3%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2% from November to December. This result stems from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 10 thousand to 204 thousand in the week ending January 11. The 4-week moving average was 216.25 thousand, a decrease of 7.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending January 4 was 1,767 thousand, a decrease of 37 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,755.5 thousand, an increase of 10.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The number of job openings decreased 561 thousand to 6.8 million on the last business day of November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively.
- Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 118.3 million full-time wage and salary workers were $936 in the fourth quarter of 2019 (not seasonally adjusted), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was 4.0% higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 2.0% in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers over the same period. Women had median weekly earnings of $843, or 82.5% of the $1,022 median for men.
- The January 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew slightly in New York State. The headline general business conditions index increased 1.5 points to 4.8. The prices paid index increased 16.3 points, while the prices received index increased 10.1 points. Looking ahead, firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were last month. The index for future business conditions edged down three points to 23.6.
- The Philadelphia FED’s manufacturing business outlook survey for January 2020 reported that economic growth continued in the region. The index for current manufacturing activity increased from 2.4 in December to 17.0 in January. The prices paid index increased 6.2 points, while the prices received index increased 3.7 points in January.
- The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity generally continued to expand in the final six weeks of 2019. Consumer spending grew at a modest to moderate pace. Manufacturing activity was essentially flat in most Districts. Business in nonfinancial services was growing modestly. New residential construction expanded modestly. Agricultural conditions were little changed, as was activity in the energy sector. In many Districts, tariffs and trade uncertainty continued to weigh on some businesses. Expectations for the near-term outlook remained modestly favorable across the nation. Most Districts cited widespread labor shortages as a factor constraining job growth, and, in a few cases, business expansion. Wage growth was modest or moderate in most Districts. Prices and input costs continued to rise at a modest pace. A few Districts indicated that some businesses were passing along tariff costs to consumers, mostly in retail but also in construction. Some Districts noted that restaurants were being pressured by rising food prices.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
January 10th, 2020
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 145 thousand in December, following an increase of 256 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 139 thousand in December, while government employment increased by 6 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. Payroll employment rose by 2.1 million in the year 2019, compared with a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 3.5% in December, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 58 thousand to 5.753 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.9%, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.286 million
- The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 33 thousand to 1.186 million and accounted for 20.5% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 533 thousand.
- The labor force participation rate remained at 63.2% in December, and little changed over the year.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in December.
- In December, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents to $28.32. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.9%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 9 thousand to 214 thousand in the week ending January 4. The 4-week moving average was 224 thousand, a decrease of 9.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 28 was 1,803 thousand, an increase of 75 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level of 1,728 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,744.75 thousand, an increase of 33 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,711.75 thousand.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
